“Mικρό” κέρδους ύψους… 800.000 δολαρίων για τον Άιβυ στο Superbowl!

[GeorgeSadoor]

** Αυτό το θέμα ασχολείται με το άρθρο: “Mικρό” κέρδους ύψους… 800.000 δολαρίων για τον Άιβυ στο Superbowl! **

Αυτό ρωτάω και γώ.Ποιά η διαφορά?

λολ

[Dougoudou]

To +3.5 gia tin Arizona 1st half dikaiologeitai. Ipirxe kai 4 me shopping alla ok de tha ton afinan na paiksei oute 20 xiliarika sto +4, opote to +3.5 ok dikaiologeitai.

To +6.5 pontoi 1.91 apodosi omws einai toso xontro lathos (gia Vegas pou epitrepei point buying girw apo to '7') pou an imoun o ticket writer pou tou xtipise to kouponi tha riskara ti douleia mou gia na tou psithirisw 'perhaps you want to buy this up to +7.5 -130 (dil +7.5 1.77 apodosi)'. Nomizw mono to tip pou tha pairne o ticket writer otan tou eksigouse to poso value afine sto trapezi (panw apo $50k) me to +6.5 arkouse gia to risko na xasei mia apo tis pio kakoplirwmenes douleies sto Vegas.

Not to mention oti to MGM Mirage eixe tous Cardinals sto +7 ti mera pou to epaikse aftos, giati na paei kapou me +6.5?

Tespa, as mi diilizw ton kwnwpa, opws kanoun se kati tetoia pragmata sto 2+2. Profanws o anthrwpos mono san hobby to vlepei to sportsbetting. Par'ol'afta kanei entipwsi na gnwrizei olon ton kalo ton kosmo sto Vegas kai na min tou psithirisei enas kapoia vasika pragmata... Toulaxiston aftin ti fora eixe ti swsti meria (swsti sto +7, sto 6.5 i apodosi apla itan swsti kai den ipirxe value), tin alli fora stous telikous Lakers-Celtics ta bets tou itan poli xeirotera.

[peris31]

mporeis se parakalw an vreis xrono na kaneis mia analysh sxetika me to pote einai ena bet value.epishs an mporeis dwse mia kshghsh giati to sygkekrimeno den einai value sto +6.5 me 1.91 apodosh.poso eprepe na einai?me ti vash to sygrineis k vgainei not value?

[Dougoudou]

peris31 έγραψε:

mporeis se parakalw an vreis xrono na kaneis mia analysh sxetika me to pote einai ena bet value.epishs an mporeis dwse mia kshghsh giati to sygkekrimeno den einai value sto +6.5 me 1.91 apodosh.poso eprepe na einai?me ti vash to sygrineis k vgainei not value?

Lipamai ala den tha mporesw na se diafwtisw. Einai diskolo na to eksigisw, apo ena simeio kai meta prokiptei mono apo tin empeiria. Milaw gia kapoio stoixima opws to sigkekrimeno sto superbowl, opou pleon poli diskola mporeis na prosdokas na tixei match pou oi book den tha to exoun peripou sti swsti apodosi. Sto SuperBowl paizontai toso polla lefta pou oi book kseroun akrivws ti na kanoun (stis meres mas, oxi paliotera). Opote akoma kai an iparxei value sto ponitspread (handicap) einai thin value. Diladi de mporei na prosdokas oti to +6.5 i to -6.5 einai 55% na erthei, toso xontro lathos se toso high-profiled game den iparxei pleon stis meres mas. Isws ena apo ta 2 na einai 51.5% alla ws ekei.

Gia na vgaleis value se apodoseis 1.91(1.9090909090..), prepei na exeis stoixima konta 52.4% na erthei (kai panw). Gia na apofigeis na paikseis tin apodosi pou tha paiksei olos o kosmos (opws ekane o Ivey) prepei na kaneis 'timing' to market tou stoiximatos kai na pontareis sto 'apex' opws leme. Diladi na pontareis ti meria pou thes, edw as poume Arizona Cardinals + pontous, stin ipsiloteri apodosi stin opoia tha ftasoun. Twra mi me rwtas pws akrivws kathorizeis poia tha einai afti, exei na kanei kai me empeiria kai me gnwsi tou poioi pontaroun (tis agoras diladi) kai me fundamentals klp. En prokeimenw i swsti apodosi itan peripou to 6.5, an to epiane sto +7, opws eprepe, anti na exei ena 50-50 bet tha eixe ena 53%+ bet (to opoio einai arketo gia na kerdisei ti gkaniota), afou to 7 sto NFL kathetai peripou 6% twn forwn, einai noumero kleidi opws leme.

Enallaktika, prepei na psakseis alla market inaccuracies, opws to point buying pou anefera, gia na oikodomiseis edge, sxedon ek tou midenos. To na pisteveis oti exeis edge paizontas mia apodosi sto nfl pou itan +7 kai egine +6.5 xwris na mesolavisoun nea (px travmatismoi) einai oso afeles einai na thewreis oti mporeis na paizeis kathe savvatokiriako opap kai na exeis edge. Giati an mporeis na exeis 1% edge ston opap, simainei oti me shopping stis kaliteres apodoseis tou internet exeis as poume 10-15% edge. Me tetoio edge, akoma kai me to xeirotero money management tou kosmou, tha isoun plousios se 3 xronia. Gia na min to kanei kaneis, mallon simainei oti de ginetai. Omoiws kai me to bet tou Ivey, an eixe edge, tha pei oti kapoia tsakalia pou epaizan tin idia wra to +7 agorazontas miso ponto, sto +7.5 -120 (dil +7.5 pontous 1.83) eixan monster edge. An omws eixan toso megalo edge kai afto sinevaine sixna, aftoi tha ta 'xan falirisei ta grafeia. Pragma pou de simvainei. Solve by inspection pou elege prin polla xronia kai o mentoras mou o Fezzik (pou fetos o kwlofardos kerdise to megalitero stoixmatiko diagwnismo tou kosmou, to Hilton Contest).

Me pio apla logia, kai mono pou i apodosi emeine sto +6.5 kai den kounithike pros ta katw peraiterw, kai mono pou pio prin perase apo to +7 1.91, tha pei oti o Ivey eixe sucker bet ekei sto +6.5.